#165 Mary Washington (7-6)

avg: 755.4  •  sd: 70.05  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
176 George Mason Win 13-12 793.74 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
88 Boston University Loss 9-12 830.89 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
167 American Loss 9-10 604.42 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
102 Villanova Loss 6-13 494.45 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
174 Drexel Win 14-13 807.97 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
169 Williams Win 15-14 830.46 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
121 Navy Loss 7-11 545.88 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
216 Towson Win 13-7 1018.96 Feb 22nd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
257 Slippery Rock Win 12-9 351.62 Feb 22nd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
168 George Washington Win 13-11 946.7 Feb 22nd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
167 American Loss 10-13 401.28 Feb 22nd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
174 Drexel Win 15-7 1282.97 Feb 23rd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
128 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 12-13 833.36 Feb 23rd Oak Creek Challenge 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)