#353 California-San Diego-B (6-9)

avg: 475.68  •  sd: 49.82  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
357 San Jose State Loss 10-11 323.54 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
254 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 6-10 344.03 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
431 Cal Poly-SLO-C Win 11-7 386.73 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
272 Arizona State-B Loss 7-10 386.81 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
434 Southern California-B** Win 13-2 389.71 Ignored Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
444 California-Irvine-B** Win 13-3 12.99 Ignored Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
254 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 7-8 715.19 Mar 9th 2019 SoCal Mixer
199 Claremont Loss 10-12 758.22 Mar 9th 2019 SoCal Mixer
344 California-Irvine Loss 10-11 381.27 Mar 9th 2019 SoCal Mixer
261 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 6-12 241.83 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
388 Arizona-B Win 10-8 543.46 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
184 California-B Loss 3-13 432.51 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
344 California-Irvine Win 12-11 631.27 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
406 Colorado School of Mines - B Win 8-5 640.62 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
216 Occidental Loss 6-13 327.34 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)