#38 Emory (9-6)

avg: 1535.82  •  sd: 59.77  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
36 Alabama-Huntsville Loss 8-9 1451.17 Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
225 Spring Hill Win 13-8 1097.78 Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
117 Georgia State Win 12-4 1710.57 Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
233 Jacksonville State** Win 11-3 1182.54 Ignored Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
84 Alabama Win 11-10 1397.18 Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
87 Mississippi State Win 11-9 1509.96 Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
49 Vanderbilt Win 13-11 1675.26 Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
43 Grand Canyon Loss 8-9 1386.91 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
9 California-Santa Cruz Win 12-11 2020.46 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
7 Oregon Loss 9-13 1549.51 Feb 18th President’s Day Invite
6 Colorado Loss 7-13 1434.86 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
45 Western Washington Win 9-7 1768.59 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
20 Washington Loss 10-12 1503.93 Feb 19th President’s Day Invite
52 Colorado State Win 12-10 1674.59 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
26 California Loss 9-13 1274.55 Feb 20th President’s Day Invite
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)