#119 College of New Jersey (7-3)

avg: 1297.25  •  sd: 89.62  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
144 Army Loss 8-9 1050.5 Mar 26th Garden State1
263 Swarthmore** Win 12-5 1281.29 Ignored Mar 26th Garden State1
300 Rutgers-B** Win 11-2 1045.57 Ignored Mar 26th Garden State1
165 Penn State-B Win 7-6 1223.45 Mar 26th Garden State1
223 SUNY-Stony Brook Win 11-8 1208.18 Apr 1st Fuego2
160 Wesleyan Win 9-5 1641.15 Apr 1st Fuego2
282 New Hampshire** Win 11-1 1167.47 Ignored Apr 1st Fuego2
95 Massachusetts-B Loss 4-11 822.22 Apr 2nd Fuego2
124 Towson Win 12-6 1848.44 Apr 2nd Fuego2
100 Vermont-B Loss 10-11 1268.49 Apr 2nd Fuego2
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)