#266 Penn State-B (9-5)

avg: 798.33  •  sd: 72.64  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
182 Messiah Loss 7-12 522.33 Mar 16th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
437 Towson -B** Win 13-0 372.21 Ignored Mar 16th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
373 Edinboro Win 13-8 856.39 Mar 16th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
349 William & Mary-B Win 13-4 1085.45 Mar 16th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
417 Georgetown-B** Win 15-4 701.6 Ignored Mar 17th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
279 Maryland-B Win 12-8 1199.24 Mar 17th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
297 Connecticut-B Loss 8-14 158.64 Mar 17th Squirrely Cuts Only 2018 DIIIB team tournament
245 Stevens Tech Loss 11-12 751.22 Mar 30th Garden State 9
60 Bryant University** Loss 5-13 954.37 Mar 30th Garden State 9
412 Fairfield** Win 13-5 751.61 Ignored Mar 30th Garden State 9
239 Slippery Rock Loss 6-7 771.36 Mar 31st Garden State 9
393 Susquehanna Win 13-10 595.74 Mar 31st Garden State 9
387 Princeton-B Win 13-5 881.4 Mar 31st Garden State 9
335 College of New Jersey Win 12-8 982.37 Mar 31st Garden State 9
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)