#137 Portland State (7-5)

avg: 1224.16  •  sd: 62.69  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
253 Oregon State-B Win 15-11 1098.78 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
78 Santa Clara Loss 4-15 875.08 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
125 Washington State Win 15-11 1649.35 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
241 Humboldt State Win 15-9 1272.72 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
32 Oregon State Loss 1-15 1205.73 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
78 Santa Clara Loss 11-15 1093.91 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
253 Oregon State-B Win 13-4 1317.62 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
287 Portland** Win 11-4 1143.82 Ignored Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
303 Whitworth** Win 13-5 1034.61 Ignored Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
136 Pacific Lutheran Loss 10-11 1099.31 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
159 Puget Sound Win 15-10 1568.6 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
111 Washington-B Loss 12-15 1018.07 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)