#269 Ball State (6-7)

avg: 785.46  •  sd: 79.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
105 Iowa Loss 5-13 737.36 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
386 Southern Indiana Win 13-3 887.49 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
226 Miami (Ohio) Loss 7-10 526.78 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
196 Middle Tennessee State Loss 6-12 423.83 Mar 16th Shamrock Showdown 2019
329 Northern Illinois Win 15-2 1161.93 Mar 17th Shamrock Showdown 2019
160 Vanderbilt Loss 12-13 999.38 Mar 17th Shamrock Showdown 2019
283 Tennessee Tech Loss 10-15 285.03 Mar 17th Shamrock Showdown 2019
303 Ohio Northern Win 13-7 1209.73 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
145 Dayton Loss 6-13 589.68 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
247 Xavier Loss 9-13 456.18 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
358 Trine Win 13-7 1005.43 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
391 John Carroll Win 15-5 872.41 Mar 24th CWRUL Memorial 2019
347 Wright State Win 15-9 1006.64 Mar 24th CWRUL Memorial 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)