#35 Air Force (25-1)

avg: 1639.57  •  sd: 82.65  •  top 16/20: 1.4%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
158 Lewis & Clark Win 15-9 1617.61 Jan 20th Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
- Oregon State-B** Win 15-3 779.54 Ignored Jan 20th Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
275 Washington-B** Win 15-4 1300.12 Ignored Jan 20th Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
121 Puget Sound Win 10-5 1830.81 Jan 21st Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
55 Oregon State Win 10-9 1643.18 Jan 21st Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
271 Central Washington** Win 13-1 1306.87 Ignored Jan 21st Flat Tail Open Tournament 2018
195 Sonoma State** Win 12-5 1563.31 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
276 San Jose State** Win 13-3 1298.83 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
186 Cal Poly-Pomona Win 12-9 1328.47 Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
100 Arizona Win 13-6 1935.48 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
79 California-Davis Win 11-9 1663.83 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
26 Texas-Dallas Loss 9-12 1383.65 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
128 Colorado School of Mines Win 12-10 1441.99 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
85 Colorado College Win 13-2 1999.36 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
355 Colorado Mesa University** Win 13-1 954.28 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
341 Air Force Academy-B** Win 13-0 1006.53 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
159 Colorado-B Win 13-3 1694.56 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
159 Colorado-B Win 10-9 1219.56 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
85 Colorado College Win 12-8 1840.52 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
- Butler** Win 13-2 1076.49 Ignored Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
157 St Olaf Win 10-7 1495.01 Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
423 Coe** Win 13-1 386.55 Ignored Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
173 Oberlin Win 13-6 1633.75 Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
153 Xavier Win 15-7 1715.49 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
173 Oberlin Win 15-9 1549.23 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
57 Whitman Win 15-11 1887.72 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)