#273 California-Davis-B (3-7)

avg: 386.89  •  sd: 82.25  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
223 Cal State-Long Beach Loss 8-10 345.53 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
229 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 10-8 855.24 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Loss 7-12 323.41 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
163 California-San Diego-B Loss 10-15 465.87 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
317 California-San Diego-C Win 15-3 671.43 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
229 California-Santa Barbara-B Loss 7-10 202.91 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
- Pacific Lutheran-B Win 13-1 714.01 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
228 Willamette University Loss 7-11 130.54 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
208 Reed Loss 8-15 126.67 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
217 Seattle Loss 8-15 86.95 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)