#294 Illinois-B (10-7)

avg: 597.03  •  sd: 74.09  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
144 Dayton Loss 4-12 553.53 Mar 10th Last Call 9
346 Illinois-Chicago Win 10-9 513.64 Mar 10th Last Call 9
283 Wisconsin-Stevens Point Loss 9-10 522.16 Mar 10th Last Call 9
334 Illinois State-B Loss 5-13 -169.68 Mar 11th Last Call 9
337 DePaul Win 13-3 1012.99 Mar 11th Last Call 9
296 Eastern Illinois Loss 8-10 331.5 Mar 11th Last Call 9
398 Rose-Hulman Win 8-6 390.44 Mar 11th Last Call 9
49 Marquette** Loss 2-12 948.36 Ignored Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
348 Iowa State-B Win 8-6 670.2 Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
157 St Olaf Loss 6-10 609.18 Mar 24th Meltdown 2018
334 Illinois State-B Win 11-7 897.21 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
253 Ferris State University Win 12-9 1107.2 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
197 Loyola-Chicago Loss 6-11 406.86 Mar 25th Meltdown 2018
- Purdue-B Win 13-5 937.8 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
300 Southern Indiana Win 13-12 710.41 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
342 Washington University-B Win 14-13 521.36 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
378 Michigan State-B Win 9-8 379.04 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)