#205 SUNY-Cortland (9-12)

avg: 928.38  •  sd: 67.96  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
80 Connecticut College Loss 12-13 1347.27 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus1
170 Ithaca Loss 6-9 659.66 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus1
177 Rochester Loss 7-10 650.52 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus1
245 SUNY-Albany Win 10-6 1246.08 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus1
95 Massachusetts-B Loss 7-9 1142.88 Feb 26th Bring The Huckus1
177 Rochester Loss 4-12 440.19 Feb 26th Bring The Huckus1
245 SUNY-Albany Win 10-4 1349.92 Feb 26th Bring The Huckus1
204 Maine Win 7-5 1259.36 Mar 11th Oak Creek Invite 2023
69 Maryland** Loss 4-13 939.96 Ignored Mar 11th Oak Creek Invite 2023
76 Princeton Loss 9-13 1064.7 Mar 11th Oak Creek Invite 2023
83 RIT Loss 4-13 850.36 Mar 11th Oak Creek Invite 2023
223 SUNY-Stony Brook Win 9-8 967.57 Mar 25th Strong Island 2023
239 Stevens Tech Win 13-3 1361.75 Mar 25th Strong Island 2023
305 SUNY-Binghamton-B Win 12-6 1011.27 Mar 25th Strong Island 2023
239 Stevens Tech Win 13-7 1319.28 Mar 26th Strong Island 2023
128 SUNY-Buffalo Loss 5-11 659.41 Mar 26th Strong Island 2023
176 Syracuse Loss 5-13 447.79 Apr 2nd Northeast Salvage
83 RIT Loss 6-11 903.66 Apr 2nd Northeast Salvage
352 Siena** Win 7-2 623.97 Ignored Apr 2nd Northeast Salvage
283 Skidmore Win 9-8 684.1 Apr 2nd Northeast Salvage
245 SUNY-Albany Loss 7-9 470.58 Apr 2nd Northeast Salvage
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)