#92 St. Olaf (9-2)

avg: 1217.95  •  sd: 103.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
151 Carleton College-CHOP Win 9-7 1238.21 Feb 11th Ugly Dome
132 Minnesota-B Loss 7-13 450.53 Feb 11th Ugly Dome
239 Minnesota-C** Win 13-2 1045.05 Ignored Feb 11th Ugly Dome
186 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Win 12-7 1264.19 Feb 11th Ugly Dome
253 Winona State** Win 13-4 973.41 Ignored Feb 11th Ugly Dome
263 Carleton College-Karls** Win 13-1 912.96 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
107 Chicago Win 11-9 1375.22 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
134 Marquette Win 10-7 1395.08 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
46 Colorado College Loss 4-13 828.49 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
71 Northwestern Win 12-8 1762.83 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
95 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 10-9 1328.51 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)