#118 Navy (9-5)

avg: 1134.33  •  sd: 87.99  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
34 James Madison Loss 7-13 1097.21 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
171 Syracuse Loss 9-13 538.57 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
207 Drexel Win 13-11 1045.03 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
72 Lehigh Loss 12-13 1247.45 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
201 American Win 14-9 1304.04 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
195 George Mason Win 15-7 1441.41 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
177 Mary Washington Win 11-7 1393.4 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warmup 2020
176 Xavier Loss 8-13 430.9 Feb 29th FCS D III Tune Up 2020
143 Oberlin Win 13-11 1255.2 Feb 29th FCS D III Tune Up 2020
262 Campbell Win 13-3 1157.13 Feb 29th FCS D III Tune Up 2020
135 Messiah Win 11-9 1315.27 Feb 29th FCS D III Tune Up 2020
162 Air Force Win 13-9 1400.69 Mar 1st FCS D III Tune Up 2020
155 North Carolina-Asheville Win 13-7 1554.68 Mar 1st FCS D III Tune Up 2020
116 Franciscan Loss 9-13 734.64 Mar 1st FCS D III Tune Up 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)