#317 California-San Diego-C (2-10)

avg: 71.43  •  sd: 135.92  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
267 UCLA-B Loss 6-7 309.71 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
107 Cal Poly-SLO-B** Loss 3-12 557.05 Ignored Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
298 San Diego State-B Win 8-6 488.22 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
310 Caltech Win 11-6 656.63 Jan 21st Presidents Day Qualifier
267 UCLA-B Loss 10-12 196.58 Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
9 California-Santa Cruz** Loss 0-15 1295.46 Ignored Jan 22nd Presidents Day Qualifier
245 Arizona State-B Loss 2-11 -85.71 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
267 UCLA-B Loss 0-15 -165.29 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
244 Southern California-B Loss 3-15 -85.38 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
134 Occidental** Loss 0-15 427.59 Ignored Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
273 California-Davis-B Loss 3-15 -213.11 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
244 Southern California-B Loss 5-13 -85.38 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)