#73 Michigan State (9-5)

avg: 1419.54  •  sd: 68.01  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Iowa Loss 9-12 1279.44 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
12 North Carolina State Loss 6-13 1318.86 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
133 Case Western Reserve Win 13-9 1594.33 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
78 Georgetown Loss 12-13 1290.07 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
23 Georgia Tech Loss 7-12 1223.45 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2018
113 Lehigh Loss 7-15 684.08 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
62 Vermont Win 15-14 1590.83 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
151 George Mason Win 15-12 1417.33 Feb 18th Easterns Qualifier 2018
124 Indiana Win 11-9 1475.47 Mar 24th Indy Invite College Men 2018
136 Ohio Win 11-9 1423.98 Mar 24th Indy Invite College Men 2018
259 Northern Illinois Win 13-6 1352.4 Mar 24th Indy Invite College Men 2018
95 Purdue Win 12-10 1591.06 Mar 25th Indy Invite College Men 2018
137 Grand Valley State Win 14-10 1571.66 Mar 25th Indy Invite College Men 2018
122 Tennessee Win 15-8 1820.36 Mar 25th Indy Invite College Men 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)