#262 Tufts-B (5-10)

avg: 819.8  •  sd: 106.88  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
242 Rowan Loss 5-9 357.4 Mar 9th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
129 Marist Loss 5-11 671.8 Mar 9th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
187 NYU Loss 5-7 702.46 Mar 9th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
151 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 2-11 562.14 Mar 9th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
149 SUNY-Stony Brook Loss 2-11 579.21 Mar 9th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
290 Hofstra Loss 4-7 212.31 Mar 10th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
213 Columbia Loss 2-11 348.26 Mar 10th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
389 Cornell-B Loss 7-8 149.9 Mar 10th No Sleep Till Brooklyn
217 Amherst College Win 10-7 1316.24 Mar 30th Tea Cup 2019
317 Worcester Polytech Win 7-6 721.85 Mar 30th Tea Cup 2019
122 Yale Loss 8-10 1016.86 Mar 30th Tea Cup 2019
225 SUNY-Oneonta Win 10-9 1041.54 Mar 30th Tea Cup 2019
217 Amherst College Win 9-5 1455.64 Mar 31st Tea Cup 2019
127 Boston College Loss 9-10 1149.72 Mar 31st Tea Cup 2019
213 Columbia Win 9-6 1366.83 Mar 31st Tea Cup 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)