#235 Arizona State-B (16-11)

avg: 802.66  •  sd: 67.8  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
237 New Mexico Win 11-7 1265.69 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2018
310 Grand Canyon Win 13-4 1156.25 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2018
90 Northern Arizona Loss 8-13 881.44 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2018
222 Brigham Young-B Loss 7-13 305.94 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2018
429 Arizona State-C** Win 9-1 316.02 Ignored Jan 28th New Year Fest 2018
159 Colorado-B Loss 7-13 537.03 Jan 28th New Year Fest 2018
397 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 10-7 496.82 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
214 California-Santa Cruz Loss 7-11 438.68 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
276 San Jose State Loss 10-11 573.83 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
394 California-San Diego-C Win 10-5 696.12 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
195 Sonoma State Win 13-9 1381.87 Feb 4th Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
186 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 5-13 383.1 Feb 4th Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
214 California-Santa Cruz Loss 6-13 305.57 Feb 4th Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
333 California-Davis-B Win 11-5 1030.48 Feb 4th Presidents Day Qualifier 2018
310 Grand Canyon Win 11-9 805.46 Mar 10th Pleasurefest 2018
202 Utah Valley Loss 9-13 513.53 Mar 10th Pleasurefest 2018
156 Colorado-Denver Loss 5-13 506.91 Mar 10th Pleasurefest 2018
366 Arizona-B Win 12-10 554.14 Mar 10th Pleasurefest 2018
237 New Mexico Win 9-7 1078.14 Mar 11th Pleasurefest 2018
322 Northern Arizona-B Win 11-7 964.92 Mar 11th Pleasurefest 2018
111 Arizona State Win 6-4 1654.82 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
332 California-San Diego-B Win 10-5 1016.08 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
333 California-Davis-B Win 9-4 1030.48 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
176 Colorado State-B Win 9-8 1151.62 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
272 Miami Win 9-8 826.69 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
100 Arizona Loss 5-12 735.48 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
148 San Diego State Loss 2-15 547.07 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)