#54 Mary Washington (14-2)

avg: 1524.23  •  sd: 60.34  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
136 Ohio Win 12-11 1299.77 Feb 24th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
80 Amherst Win 11-6 1956.62 Feb 24th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
250 Maryland-Baltimore County** Win 13-4 1368.7 Ignored Feb 24th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
145 Drexel Win 15-12 1449.8 Feb 25th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
117 Pennsylvania Win 14-13 1396.31 Feb 25th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
80 Amherst Win 15-10 1863.53 Feb 25th Oak Creek Challenge 2018
103 Delaware Win 11-9 1573.39 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
209 SUNY-Buffalo Win 13-7 1477.95 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
179 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-10 1346.22 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
33 Maryland Loss 5-13 1084.28 Mar 17th Oak Creek Invite 2018
60 Cornell Win 13-9 1891.8 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
42 Connecticut Loss 13-15 1381.38 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
91 Penn State Win 13-12 1498.9 Mar 18th Oak Creek Invite 2018
126 Elon Win 15-11 1593.28 Mar 31st DIII EastUR Powered by SAVAGE
311 Messiah** Win 15-5 1151.19 Ignored Mar 31st DIII EastUR Powered by SAVAGE
178 Shippensburg Win 15-8 1584.66 Mar 31st DIII EastUR Powered by SAVAGE
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)