#363 Texas State -B (4-12)

avg: 415.34  •  sd: 85.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
350 Sam Houston State Win 11-9 731.69 Feb 2nd Big D in Little d Open 2019
324 Stephen F. Austin Win 11-8 950.61 Feb 2nd Big D in Little d Open 2019
130 Baylor Loss 8-13 774.78 Feb 2nd Big D in Little d Open 2019
175 North Texas** Loss 3-13 467.1 Ignored Feb 2nd Big D in Little d Open 2019
92 John Brown** Loss 2-15 777.68 Ignored Feb 3rd Big D in Little d Open 2019
322 Mississippi Loss 3-11 -12.79 Mar 2nd Mardi Gras XXXII
296 LSU-B Loss 9-11 446.6 Mar 2nd Mardi Gras XXXII
207 North Florida Loss 4-11 365.51 Mar 2nd Mardi Gras XXXII
212 Texas Christian Loss 4-13 350.62 Mar 2nd Mardi Gras XXXII
277 Texas-San Antonio Win 13-8 1265.65 Mar 3rd Mardi Gras XXXII
378 Houston Loss 7-8 224.7 Mar 16th Centex 2019 Men
277 Texas-San Antonio Loss 7-13 211.96 Mar 16th Centex 2019 Men
367 Texas-B Loss 10-11 266.24 Mar 16th Centex 2019 Men
324 Stephen F. Austin Loss 8-15 20.19 Mar 17th Centex 2019 Men
409 Texas-Dallas-B Win 13-12 288.11 Mar 17th Centex 2019 Men
367 Texas-B Loss 14-15 266.24 Mar 17th Centex 2019 Men
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)