#251 Oregon State-B (3-7)

avg: 498.35  •  sd: 87.96  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
129 Washington State Loss 4-15 443.09 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
81 Santa Clara** Loss 1-15 675.93 Ignored Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
140 Portland State Loss 11-15 627.96 Jan 21st Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
252 Humboldt State Win 9-4 1096.06 Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
31 Oregon State** Loss 1-15 1031.02 Ignored Jan 22nd Pacific Confrontational Pac Con
282 Portland Win 12-10 568.22 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
140 Portland State Loss 4-13 409.12 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
294 Whitworth Win 11-9 467.25 Mar 4th PLU BBQ Mens
168 Puget Sound Loss 9-15 375.72 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
228 Willamette University Loss 10-13 269.3 Mar 5th PLU BBQ Mens
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)