#15 Central Florida (12-3)

avg: 1990.32  •  sd: 85.75  •  top 16/20: 94.3%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
20 Tufts Win 13-11 2092.99 Feb 8th Florida Warm Up 2019
12 Texas Win 13-7 2567.44 Feb 8th Florida Warm Up 2019
54 Virginia Tech Win 13-6 2219.44 Feb 8th Florida Warm Up 2019
4 Pittsburgh Loss 7-13 1627.39 Feb 9th Florida Warm Up 2019
106 Illinois State Win 11-7 1794.23 Feb 9th Florida Warm Up 2019
7 Carleton College-CUT Win 13-8 2614.8 Feb 9th Florida Warm Up 2019
29 Texas-Dallas Win 12-11 1896.91 Feb 9th Florida Warm Up 2019
2 Brown Loss 9-15 1713.68 Feb 10th Florida Warm Up 2019
12 Texas Win 12-11 2134.9 Feb 10th Florida Warm Up 2019
36 Alabama Win 15-10 2176.74 Mar 16th Tally Classic XIV
72 Alabama-Huntsville Win 12-9 1829.36 Mar 16th Tally Classic XIV
52 Notre Dame Loss 12-14 1405.71 Mar 16th Tally Classic XIV
165 Georgia Southern Win 13-7 1649.44 Mar 16th Tally Classic XIV
55 Florida State Win 15-10 2065.28 Mar 17th Tally Classic XIV
24 Auburn Win 15-10 2250.38 Mar 17th Tally Classic XIV
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)