#90 Virginia Tech (6-8)

avg: 1245.75  •  sd: 64.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
3 Brigham Young** Loss 4-13 1517.51 Ignored Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
89 Central Florida Loss 10-12 1008.43 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
22 Michigan Loss 9-13 1312.46 Feb 3rd Florida Warm Up 2023
10 Minnesota** Loss 5-13 1288.56 Ignored Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
37 Florida Loss 9-13 1122.97 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
28 Georgia Tech Loss 11-13 1443.95 Feb 4th Florida Warm Up 2023
127 Connecticut Win 11-10 1171.34 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
204 South Florida Win 13-6 1323.38 Feb 5th Florida Warm Up 2023
154 George Washington Win 13-5 1546.65 Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
235 Drexel** Win 13-3 1170.94 Ignored Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
166 Yale Loss 7-8 771.92 Mar 4th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
68 Lehigh Loss 8-13 871.1 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
149 Towson Win 13-2 1562.32 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
166 Yale Win 13-2 1496.92 Mar 5th Oak Creek Challenge 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)