#259 Washington University-B-B (4-3)

avg: 581.88  •  sd: 63.22  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
344 Colorado School of Mines-B Win 14-9 450.71 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
324 Nebraska-Omaha Win 13-8 651.87 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
332 Rice-B Win 13-8 562.29 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
275 Texas State -B Win 15-10 931.13 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
272 Southern Methodist Loss 13-14 360.61 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
169 Luther Loss 11-15 583.95 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
222 Trinity Loss 13-15 532.61 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)