#321 Minnesota-C (2-9)

avg: 304.01  •  sd: 105.11  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
142 Carleton College-CHOP** Loss 5-13 583.5 Ignored Feb 11th Ugly Dome
64 St. Olaf** Loss 2-13 968 Ignored Feb 11th Ugly Dome
210 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 6-13 296.3 Feb 11th Ugly Dome
294 Winona State Win 13-8 1001.99 Feb 11th Ugly Dome
183 Minnesota-B Loss 6-13 410.96 Feb 13th Ugly Dome
280 Ball State Loss 7-11 111.58 Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
145 Carthage** Loss 3-11 572.13 Ignored Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
207 Illinois State Loss 5-7 582.72 Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
255 Toledo Loss 6-13 115.6 Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
341 Iowa State-B Loss 8-9 45.62 Mar 26th Old Capitol Open
353 Iowa-B Win 9-8 129.56 Mar 26th Old Capitol Open
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)