#48 Iowa State (14-5)

avg: 1646.34  •  sd: 69.56  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
310 Knox** Win 13-1 980.45 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
296 Wisconsin-B** Win 13-1 1101.83 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
210 Wisconsin-Eau Claire** Win 13-5 1496.3 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
146 Kansas Win 11-6 1715.58 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
103 Truman State Win 11-7 1820.25 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
75 Grinnell Win 9-6 1905.33 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
143 Colorado-B Win 13-5 1782.73 Mar 11th Centex Tier 2
249 Texas-San Antonio** Win 13-2 1336.79 Ignored Mar 11th Centex Tier 2
186 Texas State Win 15-9 1513.33 Mar 12th Centex Tier 2
93 Iowa Win 15-7 2026.29 Mar 12th Centex Tier 2
193 North Texas Win 15-8 1539.66 Mar 12th Centex Tier 2
85 Alabama Loss 6-7 1321.99 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
35 Missouri Loss 4-7 1290.67 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
65 Indiana Win 9-7 1845.18 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
38 Purdue Loss 2-11 1173.1 Apr 1st Huck Finn1
35 Missouri Loss 7-9 1507.49 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
75 Grinnell Win 14-12 1707.72 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
49 Notre Dame Win 9-7 1922.59 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
38 Purdue Loss 10-11 1648.1 Apr 2nd Huck Finn1
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)