#263 Sacramento State (3-10)

avg: 741.99  •  sd: 87.21  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
69 Carleton College-GoP** Loss 4-13 849.46 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
53 UCLA** Loss 4-11 934.42 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
397 California-Santa Barbara-B** Win 13-4 707.16 Ignored Feb 10th Stanford Open 2018
146 Nevada-Reno Loss 3-13 549.3 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
208 Occidental Loss 7-13 362.97 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
214 California-Santa Cruz Loss 7-13 348.04 Feb 11th Stanford Open 2018
237 New Mexico Loss 7-9 519.46 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
111 Arizona State Loss 2-9 689.21 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
131 Chico State Loss 6-11 641.95 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
156 Colorado-Denver Loss 6-9 688.35 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
186 Cal Poly-Pomona Win 7-4 1479.26 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
225 California-B Loss 8-9 728.6 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
272 Miami Win 12-6 1281 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)