#139 Pennsylvania (9-9)

avg: 1229.67  •  sd: 78.93  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 James Madison Loss 8-10 1020.14 Feb 16th Easterns Qualifier 2019
38 Purdue Loss 11-13 1478.2 Feb 16th Easterns Qualifier 2019
165 Georgia Southern Win 12-9 1437.27 Feb 16th Easterns Qualifier 2019
39 Vermont Loss 12-13 1580.77 Feb 16th Easterns Qualifier 2019
87 Case Western Reserve Win 11-8 1788.17 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2019
119 Clemson Loss 12-15 983.06 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2019
64 Ohio Loss 10-13 1211.26 Feb 17th Easterns Qualifier 2019
228 Swarthmore Win 13-5 1514.86 Mar 24th Hucktastic Spring 2019
315 Muhlenberg** Win 12-3 1206.97 Ignored Mar 24th Hucktastic Spring 2019
374 Millersville** Win 13-3 958.09 Ignored Mar 24th Hucktastic Spring 2019
147 Delaware Loss 7-10 798.28 Mar 24th Hucktastic Spring 2019
243 Haverford Win 13-5 1482.39 Mar 24th Hucktastic Spring 2019
158 Lehigh Loss 9-12 783.71 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2019
299 Towson Win 11-10 807.65 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2019
137 North Carolina-B Loss 9-13 814.59 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2019
151 SUNY-Binghamton Win 13-6 1762.14 Mar 30th Atlantic Coast Open 2019
242 Rowan Win 15-7 1486.46 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2019
166 Virginia Commonwealth Loss 11-12 966.83 Mar 31st Atlantic Coast Open 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)