#405 Pacific Lutheran-B (0-12)

avg: -13.31  •  sd: 98.14  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
72 Portland** Loss 1-13 823.49 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
158 Lewis & Clark** Loss 1-13 502.13 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
271 Central Washington** Loss 1-13 106.87 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
226 Western Washington-B** Loss 0-13 237.24 Ignored Mar 3rd 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
364 Seattle Loss 1-15 -268.22 Mar 4th 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
354 Washington-C Loss 3-15 -245.69 Mar 4th 18th Annual PLU BBQ Open
290 Portland State** Loss 3-13 18.12 Ignored Mar 10th Palouse Open 20181
321 Idaho Loss 5-13 -97.99 Mar 10th Palouse Open 20181
206 Washington State Loss 6-13 323.57 Mar 10th Palouse Open 20181
221 Whitworth Loss 6-13 272.16 Mar 10th Palouse Open 20181
321 Idaho Loss 2-11 -97.99 Mar 11th Palouse Open 20181
271 Central Washington** Loss 4-13 106.87 Ignored Mar 11th Palouse Open 20181
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)