#230 Cal State-Long Beach (4-11)

avg: 791.9  •  sd: 71.52  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
166 California-San Diego-B Loss 10-11 968.76 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
243 California-Santa Barbara-B Loss 6-10 256.07 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
288 California-Davis-B Win 10-8 801.54 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Win 11-8 1405.45 Feb 18th Temecula Throwdown
275 UCLA-B Win 15-9 1123.96 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
138 Occidental Loss 5-15 598.28 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
178 San Diego State Loss 2-8 439.84 Feb 19th Temecula Throwdown
179 Loyola Marymount Loss 9-11 783.52 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
178 San Diego State Loss 10-13 711.7 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
120 California-Irvine Loss 8-13 799.36 Mar 18th Sundown Showdown
113 Claremont Loss 6-15 712.42 Apr 1st Southwest Showdown
149 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 9-10 1030.09 Apr 1st Southwest Showdown
221 California-B Win 9-8 979.61 Apr 1st Southwest Showdown
149 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 8-13 658.93 Apr 2nd Southwest Showdown
152 Northern Arizona Loss 5-14 543.35 Apr 2nd Southwest Showdown
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)