#362 Carnegie Mellon University-B (5-8)

avg: 335.5  •  sd: 83.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
386 Indiana (Pennsylvania) Loss 8-10 -65.2 Mar 3rd Huckin in the Hills 2018
270 American Loss 4-13 107.3 Mar 3rd Huckin in the Hills 2018
245 West Virginia Loss 4-13 180.79 Mar 3rd Huckin in the Hills 2018
368 Edinboro Loss 6-8 10.97 Mar 3rd Huckin in the Hills 2018
386 Indiana (Pennsylvania) Win 12-5 797.47 Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills 2018
147 Akron** Loss 3-13 548.15 Ignored Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills 2018
424 SUNY-Buffalo-B Win 10-3 384.04 Mar 4th Huckin in the Hills 2018
383 Indiana-B Win 7-6 336.77 Mar 24th 2018 B Team Brodown
220 Dartmouth-B Loss 3-10 273.7 Mar 24th 2018 B Team Brodown
- Grove City Loss 5-13 334.95 Mar 24th 2018 B Team Brodown
350 California-Pennsylvania Win 11-6 914.03 Mar 24th 2018 B Team Brodown
402 Cleveland State Win 11-4 633.02 Mar 24th 2018 B Team Brodown
312 Slippery Rock Loss 3-7 -65.66 Mar 25th 2018 B Team Brodown
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)