#272 Arizona State-B (14-9)

avg: 776.47  •  sd: 74.13  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
382 Air Force-B Win 13-3 906.13 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
238 Denver Loss 8-13 401.64 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
202 Northern Arizona Win 11-6 1519.76 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
388 Arizona-B Win 13-7 838.33 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
222 Grand Canyon Loss 10-13 591.74 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2019
273 Colorado State-B Win 13-9 1194.3 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2019
357 San Jose State Win 7-4 944.7 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
254 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 6-10 344.03 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
431 Cal Poly-SLO-C** Win 13-3 519.84 Ignored Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
353 California-San Diego-B Win 10-7 865.35 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
254 Cal Poly-Pomona Loss 5-7 512.05 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
261 Cal Poly-SLO-B Win 9-8 946.14 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
344 California-Irvine Win 13-8 1002.43 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
169 Chico State Loss 9-11 835.1 Feb 3rd Presidents Day Qualifiers Men
434 Southern California-B Win 13-7 347.24 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
- Ottawa (Arizona)** Win 13-4 -167.82 Ignored Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
123 New Mexico Loss 6-8 978.92 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
406 Colorado School of Mines - B Win 13-5 787.01 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
271 San Diego State Loss 4-7 284.66 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
361 Miami Win 13-8 918.67 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
261 Cal Poly-SLO-B Loss 10-13 493 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
74 Arizona** Loss 3-13 879.09 Ignored Mar 30th Desert Duel 2019
222 Grand Canyon Win 8-7 1044.88 Mar 30th Desert Duel 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)