#101 Oregon State (10-7)

avg: 1505.97  •  sd: 108.1  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
113 Portland State Win 11-3 2030.26 Jan 27th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
68 Boise State Win 9-7 2041.98 Jan 27th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
126 Portland Win 13-4 1913.7 Jan 27th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
147 Humboldt State Win 13-5 1792.56 Jan 27th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
5 Oregon** Loss 4-15 2010.52 Ignored Jan 28th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
67 Puget Sound Win 13-9 2187.38 Jan 28th Flat Tail Womens Tournament 2018
183 Western Washington-B Win 12-7 1479.73 Feb 24th PLU BBQ 2018
76 Pacific Lutheran Win 9-7 1972.05 Feb 24th PLU BBQ 2018
158 Gonzaga Win 11-5 1740.09 Feb 24th PLU BBQ 2018
158 Gonzaga Win 11-7 1606.98 Feb 25th PLU BBQ 2018
76 Pacific Lutheran Win 12-9 2038.08 Feb 25th PLU BBQ 2018
113 Portland State Loss 12-13 1305.26 Feb 25th PLU BBQ 2018
126 Portland Loss 9-12 968.33 Mar 24th NW Challenge 2018
72 Simon Fraser University Loss 7-11 1262.11 Mar 24th NW Challenge 2018
103 Claremont Loss 5-11 891.21 Mar 24th NW Challenge 2018
67 Puget Sound Loss 2-15 1168.81 Mar 25th NW Challenge 2018
126 Portland Loss 8-12 872.54 Mar 25th NW Challenge 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)