#262 Michigan-B (3-13)

avg: 34.6  •  sd: 100.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
62 Oberlin** Loss 2-13 817.04 Ignored Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
81 Ohio** Loss 1-13 668.3 Ignored Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
59 Duke** Loss 0-13 845.96 Ignored Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
231 Pennsylvania-B Loss 6-13 -282.82 Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
209 North Carolina-B Loss 1-13 -113.56 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2019
271 Virginia-B Win 7-6 -58.46 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2019
264 Northwestern-B Win 7-6 121.48 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
285 Eastern Michigan** Win 11-1 -3.52 Ignored Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
185 Kenyon Loss 5-11 12.2 Mar 23rd CWRUL Memorial 2019
104 Boston College** Loss 0-15 494.98 Ignored Mar 24th CWRUL Memorial 2019
169 Rochester** Loss 1-13 154.37 Ignored Mar 24th CWRUL Memorial 2019
94 Carnegie Mellon** Loss 1-12 584.72 Ignored Mar 24th CWRUL Memorial 2019
208 Wisconsin-Oshkosh Loss 5-6 369.94 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 8
229 Saint Louis Loss 4-5 200.34 Mar 30th Illinois Invite 8
- Washington University-B Loss 4-5 245.42 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 8
229 Saint Louis Loss 4-7 -170.82 Mar 31st Illinois Invite 8
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)