#199 North Carolina-Wilmington (3-9)

avg: -72.57  •  sd: 239.89  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Georgia** Loss 4-14 813.2 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
47 Washington University** Loss 4-10 755.16 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
4 Tufts** Loss 2-15 1700.29 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
34 Michigan** Loss 4-13 897.72 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
45 Florida** Loss 2-13 761.44 Ignored Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
46 Florida State** Loss 2-11 759.02 Ignored Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
111 Charleston** Loss 2-11 204.34 Ignored Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
219 Emory-B** Win 8-2 -212.63 Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
214 Florida-B Win 8-4 182.94 Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
23 Carleton College-Eclipse** Loss 0-15 1005.11 Ignored Mar 19th College Southerns XXI
- Georgia Southern** Win 9-0 -186.33 Mar 19th College Southerns XXI
129 Emory** Loss 5-12 35.12 Ignored Mar 19th College Southerns XXI
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)