#111 California-Irvine (6-6)

avg: 1433.34  •  sd: 68.4  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
63 Arizona Loss 6-12 1206.92 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
17 California-Santa Barbara** Loss 4-13 1720.26 Ignored Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
120 California-San Diego-B Loss 8-9 1253.7 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
73 San Diego State Loss 7-11 1256.84 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
242 California-Davis-B** Win 13-0 1110.9 Ignored Feb 4th 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
197 Arizona-B Win 7-0 1514.92 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
100 Arizona State Loss 4-5 1381.24 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
138 Santa Clara Win 8-1 1859.54 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
228 New Mexico** Win 7-1 1277.57 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
98 Northern Arizona Win 8-7 1648.85 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
176 Occidental Win 6-3 1556.73 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
73 San Diego State Loss 2-9 1123.73 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)