#73 Truman State (11-3)

avg: 1276.3  •  sd: 116.41  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
135 John Brown Win 12-11 950.02 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
208 Nebraska** Win 11-4 809.71 Ignored Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
57 Kansas Loss 9-11 1121.24 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
192 Grinnell Win 13-6 923.78 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
167 Air Force** Win 12-4 1150.71 Ignored Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
120 Denver Win 12-5 1528.84 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
57 Kansas Loss 6-10 874.29 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
201 Luther** Win 12-2 853.84 Ignored Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
244 Northwestern-B** Win 9-1 182.67 Ignored Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
191 Minnesota-Duluth** Win 11-4 980.78 Ignored Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
80 St Olaf Win 9-4 1819.07 Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
59 Washington University Win 8-7 1486.69 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
45 Chicago Win 7-6 1642.53 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
22 Northwestern Loss 4-10 1189.74 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)