#21 Michigan (11-12)

avg: 2238.43  •  sd: 65.36  •  top 16/20: 46.3%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 Kansas Win 11-10 1961.54 Jan 13th Florida Winter Classic 2018
8 West Chester Loss 6-13 1905.97 Jan 13th Florida Winter Classic 2018
32 Florida Loss 6-8 1779.75 Jan 13th Florida Winter Classic 2018
13 Ohio State Loss 10-11 2279.92 Jan 14th Florida Winter Classic 2018
141 North Georgia** Win 14-5 1842.65 Ignored Jan 14th Florida Winter Classic 2018
32 Florida Win 14-6 2680.24 Jan 14th Florida Winter Classic 2018
13 Ohio State Win 13-12 2529.92 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Women
12 Carleton College Loss 6-13 1821.97 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Women
41 Georgia Tech Loss 8-9 1884.42 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Women
36 Colorado College Win 11-8 2398.79 Feb 3rd Queen City Tune Up 2018 College Women
88 Georgetown Win 15-7 2178.62 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2018
15 North Carolina State Loss 13-14 2228.08 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2018
3 North Carolina Loss 7-15 2130.5 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2018
75 Pennsylvania Win 10-6 2197.69 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup 2018
59 South Carolina Win 11-9 2077.04 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup 2018
3 North Carolina Loss 9-12 2385.13 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup 2018
5 Oregon Loss 12-13 2485.52 Mar 23rd NW Challenge 2018
1 Dartmouth** Loss 6-15 2297.25 Ignored Mar 23rd NW Challenge 2018
14 Whitman Loss 6-13 1786.14 Mar 24th NW Challenge 2018
20 Washington Win 15-6 2840.23 Mar 24th NW Challenge 2018
12 Carleton College Loss 10-13 2093.83 Mar 25th NW Challenge 2018
19 Vermont Win 12-11 2388.48 Mar 25th NW Challenge 2018
43 Southern California Win 12-7 2510.79 Mar 25th NW Challenge 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)