#84 Arizona State (5-8)

avg: 689.34  •  sd: 63.57  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
109 Arizona Win 9-5 900.61 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
43 New Mexico Loss 7-12 828.24 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
145 Arizona-B** Win 13-0 600 Ignored Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
57 San Diego State Loss 7-8 1012.55 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
68 Denver Loss 7-9 703.83 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2020
92 Northern Arizona Win 7-5 953.82 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2020
64 Cal State-Long Beach Loss 5-9 514.34 Feb 1st Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
111 California-B Win 9-2 905.71 Feb 1st Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
71 Occidental Loss 8-10 689.78 Feb 1st Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
127 California-Davis-B** Win 13-2 501.74 Ignored Feb 1st Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
60 Southern California Loss 2-9 518.04 Feb 2nd Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
76 UCLA-B Loss 5-10 283.61 Feb 2nd Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
72 California-San Diego-B Loss 3-10 329.06 Feb 2nd Presidents’ Day Qualifier Women
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)