#243 Georgia State (2-10)

avg: 505.1  •  sd: 182.58  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
107 LSU Loss 4-9 866.19 Jan 27th Clutch Classic 2018
116 Alabama** Loss 3-10 801.68 Ignored Jan 27th Clutch Classic 2018
84 Emory** Loss 3-13 1016.21 Ignored Jan 27th Clutch Classic 2018
231 Tulane Loss 4-8 74.6 Jan 28th Clutch Classic 2018
40 Kennesaw State** Loss 1-15 1417.59 Ignored Jan 28th Clutch Classic 2018
267 Emory-B Win 5-1 506.06 Jan 28th Clutch Classic 2018
25 Notre Dame** Loss 0-11 1539.71 Ignored Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
40 Kennesaw State** Loss 4-11 1417.59 Ignored Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
245 George Mason University Loss 10-13 166.03 Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
47 Harvard** Loss 2-11 1377.97 Ignored Mar 10th Tally Classic XIII
231 Tulane Loss 5-8 185.81 Mar 11th Tally Classic XIII
237 Georgia Tech-B Win 12-6 1153.84 Mar 11th Tally Classic XIII
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)