#171 Illinois (8-13)

avg: 408.98  •  sd: 51.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
213 St. Olaf-B** Win 9-1 400.27 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
209 Purdue-B Win 6-1 566.37 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
70 Northwestern** Loss 1-11 638.77 Ignored Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
189 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 6-4 596.18 Mar 4th Midwest Throwdown 2023
122 Purdue Loss 5-11 228.35 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
106 Marquette Loss 4-8 386.93 Mar 5th Midwest Throwdown 2023
109 Texas State Loss 9-12 601.42 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
104 Iowa Loss 4-13 366.86 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
179 LSU Win 10-7 737.26 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
112 Rice Loss 6-13 307.62 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
190 Colorado-B Win 10-5 803.08 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
207 Northwestern-B Win 10-8 273.22 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
179 LSU Win 9-7 626.93 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
109 Texas State Loss 2-7 346.78 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
73 St. Olaf Loss 4-7 730.73 Apr 1st Illinois Invite1
165 Truman State Loss 3-5 63.78 Apr 1st Illinois Invite1
106 Marquette Loss 3-5 533.17 Apr 1st Illinois Invite1
123 Denver Loss 1-7 221.02 Apr 1st Illinois Invite1
165 Truman State Loss 3-7 -117.65 Apr 2nd Illinois Invite1
214 Notre Dame-B Win 9-4 395.29 Apr 2nd Illinois Invite1
174 Wheaton (Illinois) Loss 6-8 94.45 Apr 2nd Illinois Invite1
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)