#120 Arizona State (15-10)

avg: 1027.17  •  sd: 61.07  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
73 Northern Arizona Win 12-11 1449.82 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
74 Denver Loss 6-10 825.72 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
86 San Diego State Loss 7-9 962.87 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
277 Arizona-B** Win 13-0 271.45 Ignored Jan 26th New Year Fest 2019
118 Arizona Win 10-6 1535.88 Jan 27th New Year Fest 2019
230 New Mexico** Win 13-3 920.67 Ignored Jan 27th New Year Fest 2019
216 Montana Win 13-1 1032.17 Feb 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
123 Boise State Win 7-5 1347.52 Feb 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
90 Colorado State Loss 5-10 643.23 Feb 2nd Big Sky Brawl 2019
138 Oregon State Win 9-6 1352.74 Feb 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
30 Utah** Loss 3-10 1158.87 Ignored Feb 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
123 Boise State Loss 6-7 894.37 Feb 3rd Big Sky Brawl 2019
113 Oklahoma Loss 6-8 752.15 Feb 16th Big D in lil d Women
195 Texas A&M Win 11-3 1168.44 Feb 16th Big D in lil d Women
102 LSU Loss 7-8 994.43 Feb 16th Big D in lil d Women
189 Tulane Win 10-7 983.65 Feb 16th Big D in lil d Women
113 Oklahoma Win 8-5 1506.25 Feb 17th Big D in lil d Women
168 Rice Win 7-6 891.54 Feb 17th Big D in lil d Women
72 Texas-Dallas Loss 7-12 805.89 Feb 17th Big D in lil d Women
234 Nevada-Reno** Win 14-5 871.07 Ignored Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
243 Colorado-B** Win 13-3 790.79 Ignored Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
187 California-San Diego-B Win 8-3 1198.15 Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
232 California-Irvine** Win 8-1 886.61 Ignored Mar 23rd Trouble in Vegas 2019
118 Arizona Loss 3-8 439.72 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
107 Chico State Loss 6-7 951.39 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)