#114 Pacific Lutheran (4-4)

avg: 1000.51  •  sd: 84.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
145 UCLA-B Win 11-6 1312.98 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
163 Sonoma State Win 10-3 1162.53 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
67 Carleton College Loss 2-13 699.76 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
49 Puget Sound Loss 3-6 900.82 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
161 Claremont Win 10-0 1189.87 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
- Washington-B Win 13-3 1238.96 Feb 29th 2020 Womens BBQ
76 Portland Loss 5-11 652.55 Feb 29th 2020 Womens BBQ
49 Puget Sound Loss 8-15 882.7 Mar 1st 2020 Womens BBQ
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)