#197 Florida-B (2-9)

avg: -414.75  •  sd: 249.16  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
85 Central Florida** Loss 0-13 401.56 Ignored Jan 28th Florida Winter Classic 2023
51 Florida** Loss 1-13 751.31 Ignored Jan 28th Florida Winter Classic 2023
54 Florida State** Loss 1-12 729.11 Ignored Jan 28th Florida Winter Classic 2023
192 Florida Tech Loss 4-8 -791.58 Jan 28th Florida Winter Classic 2023
188 Miami (Florida) Loss 2-9 -699.88 Jan 29th Florida Winter Classic 2023
10 Northeastern** Loss 0-13 1405.01 Ignored Jan 29th Florida Winter Classic 2023
121 Charleston** Loss 0-13 164.36 Ignored Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
202 Emory-B Win 9-0 -181.4 Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
187 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 4-8 -639.43 Mar 18th College Southerns XXI
133 Emory Loss 4-8 34.83 Mar 19th College Southerns XXI
203 Georgia-B Win 11-5 -430.51 Mar 19th College Southerns XXI
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)