#79 Nevada-Reno (11-7)

avg: 1175.72  •  sd: 66.78  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
24 Carleton College-Eclipse Loss 2-10 1132.83 Feb 4th Stanford Open
53 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 4-7 883.86 Feb 4th Stanford Open
108 California-San Diego-B Win 5-4 1075.19 Feb 4th Stanford Open
- Humboldt State** Win 13-1 922.55 Ignored Feb 4th Stanford Open
87 Southern California Loss 6-7 961.09 Feb 5th Stanford Open
178 Chico State Win 8-4 916 Feb 5th Stanford Open
108 California-San Diego-B Loss 3-4 825.19 Feb 5th Stanford Open
50 California-Santa Cruz Loss 6-9 1019.08 Feb 18th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
150 Arizona State Win 11-6 1153.56 Feb 18th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
197 California-B** Win 10-1 701.55 Ignored Feb 18th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
196 California-Davis-B** Win 13-1 711.62 Ignored Feb 18th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
50 California-Santa Cruz Win 7-6 1562.65 Feb 19th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
178 Chico State Win 13-6 951.2 Feb 19th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
90 Claremont Win 12-4 1664.06 Feb 19th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
108 California-San Diego-B Win 7-4 1446.35 Feb 19th Santa Clara Rage Tournament
- Montana State Loss 4-5 1352.14 Mar 4th Big Sky Brawl1
43 Whitman Loss 6-9 1080.43 Mar 4th Big Sky Brawl1
74 Utah Win 8-7 1349.4 Mar 4th Big Sky Brawl1
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)