#21 North Carolina State (11-6)

avg: 1641.53  •  sd: 82.73  •  top 16/20: 49.8%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
28 South Carolina Win 12-10 1779.48 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff womens and nonbinary
55 Appalachian State Win 14-4 1831.85 Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff womens and nonbinary
142 North Carolina-B** Win 15-0 1168.24 Ignored Jan 21st Carolina Kickoff womens and nonbinary
1 North Carolina** Loss 2-14 2211.43 Ignored Jan 22nd Carolina Kickoff womens and nonbinary
83 Temple** Win 12-3 1577.42 Ignored Jan 22nd Carolina Kickoff womens and nonbinary
66 Case Western Reserve Win 12-7 1642.7 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
45 Florida Loss 7-10 971.77 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
13 Pittsburgh Loss 7-10 1420.95 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
5 Vermont** Loss 6-15 1647.07 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
38 Chicago Loss 6-7 1329.66 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
47 Washington University Loss 8-9 1230.16 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
142 North Carolina-B** Win 13-1 1168.24 Ignored Mar 25th Rodeo 2023
64 Williams Win 13-3 1748.5 Mar 25th Rodeo 2023
57 Penn State Win 13-4 1824.92 Mar 25th Rodeo 2023
28 South Carolina Win 10-7 1931.02 Mar 26th Rodeo 2023
25 Duke Win 11-8 1934.35 Mar 26th Rodeo 2023
130 Liberty** Win 13-4 1230.2 Ignored Mar 26th Rodeo 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)