#27 Minnesota (11-2)

avg: 1685.25  •  sd: 113.84  •  top 16/20: 24.8%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
46 Florida State Win 9-8 1598.72 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
1 North Carolina** Loss 1-14 2337.91 Ignored Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
26 Notre Dame Win 10-9 1813.33 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
62 William & Mary Win 11-8 1643.09 Feb 11th Queen City Tune Up1
35 Michigan Win 9-8 1744.57 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
14 Virginia Loss 6-10 1434.5 Feb 12th Queen City Tune Up1
- St Benedict** Win 13-0 917.2 Ignored Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
72 Iowa State Win 9-4 1830.49 Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
142 Macalester** Win 10-2 1273.45 Ignored Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
105 Michigan Tech** Win 12-3 1559.82 Ignored Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
188 Wisconsin-B** Win 13-0 837.78 Ignored Mar 25th Old Capitol Open
104 Iowa** Win 9-2 1566.86 Ignored Mar 26th Old Capitol Open
138 Michigan State** Win 8-3 1306.15 Ignored Mar 26th Old Capitol Open
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)