#126 North Park (10-3)

avg: 1012.13  •  sd: 117.06  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
215 Olivet Nazarene Win 9-2 1033.06 Mar 23rd Meltdown 2019
267 Illinois-Chicago** Win 11-2 486.17 Ignored Mar 23rd Meltdown 2019
125 St Benedict Loss 8-10 750.02 Mar 23rd Meltdown 2019
177 Wisconsin-La Crosse Win 8-3 1269 Mar 23rd Meltdown 2019
222 Valparaiso** Win 7-2 984.15 Ignored Mar 23rd Meltdown 2019
148 Marquette Win 13-6 1480.94 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
35 Truman State** Loss 4-13 1084.45 Ignored Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
125 St Benedict Win 13-7 1570.22 Mar 24th Meltdown 2019
252 Northern Michigan** Win 11-4 724.16 Ignored Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
178 Wheaton College IL Win 10-8 918.42 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
274 Wooster** Win 13-0 385.82 Ignored Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
167 Knox Loss 5-13 169.94 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
265 Notre Dame-B** Win 11-3 595.6 Ignored Mar 31st Black Penguins Classic 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)