#131 Air Force Academy (7-5)

avg: 1285.67  •  sd: 91.49  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
36 Colorado College Loss 5-9 1504.12 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
18 Brigham Young** Loss 2-13 1686.51 Ignored Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
- Colorado School of Mines Win 9-5 1177.75 Mar 3rd Air Force Invite 2018
104 Denver Win 10-9 1606.51 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
154 Colorado-B Loss 5-8 698.6 Mar 4th Air Force Invite 2018
262 Notre Dame-B** Win 13-1 712.35 Ignored Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
185 Cedarville University Win 12-11 1080.62 Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
151 Grinnell College Loss 10-11 1055.11 Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
102 Ball State Loss 8-10 1242.15 Mar 17th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
211 Wheaton (Illinois) Win 13-0 1387.2 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
185 Cedarville University Win 15-6 1555.62 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
203 Loyola-Chicago Win 13-6 1454.86 Mar 18th D III Midwestern Invite 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)