#63 Arizona (12-8)

avg: 1786.23  •  sd: 82.53  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
33 UCLA Win 12-9 2408.06 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
17 California-Santa Barbara Loss 3-13 1720.26 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
79 Chicago Loss 10-12 1415.26 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
19 Vermont Loss 10-13 1935.34 Jan 27th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
33 UCLA Win 12-9 2408.06 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
28 Washington University Loss 4-13 1513.89 Jan 28th Santa Barbara Invitational 2018
111 California-Irvine Win 12-6 2012.65 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
120 California-San Diego-B Win 7-5 1706.84 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
17 California-Santa Barbara Loss 5-13 1720.26 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
73 San Diego State Win 10-7 2113.39 Feb 3rd 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
189 Sonoma State** Win 13-4 1539.66 Ignored Feb 4th 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
35 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 7-9 1757.21 Feb 4th 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
100 Arizona State Win 11-7 1973.13 Feb 4th 2018 Presidents Day Qualifying Tournament
120 California-San Diego-B Loss 5-8 925.1 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
105 Chico State Win 10-2 2079.34 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
73 San Diego State Loss 5-9 1194.67 Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
200 Nevada-Reno** Win 13-1 1483.18 Ignored Mar 24th Trouble in Vegas 2018
98 Northern Arizona Win 12-2 2123.85 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
176 Occidental** Win 11-1 1610.03 Ignored Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
105 Chico State Win 8-7 1604.34 Mar 25th Trouble in Vegas 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)