#167 Air Force (7-10)

avg: 550.71  •  sd: 81.07  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
140 Santa Clara Loss 4-13 202.09 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
152 Stanford-B Loss 4-7 203.85 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
125 Chico State Loss 4-11 308.96 Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
76 Portland** Loss 3-13 652.55 Ignored Feb 8th Stanford Open 2020
145 UCLA-B Loss 4-5 641.28 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
157 Humboldt State Win 5-1 1219.64 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
125 Chico State Win 6-5 1033.96 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2020
178 Tulsa Loss 7-10 94.59 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
120 Denver Loss 8-9 803.84 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
229 Missouri Win 8-6 168.02 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
211 Colorado School of Mines Win 9-7 438.26 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2020
73 Truman State** Loss 4-12 676.3 Ignored Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
192 Grinnell Win 15-5 923.78 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
200 Oklahoma Win 11-6 813.05 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2020
120 Denver Loss 2-7 328.84 Mar 7th Air Force Invite 2020
40 Colorado College** Loss 3-13 953.68 Ignored Mar 7th Air Force Invite 2020
211 Colorado School of Mines Win 10-5 732.82 Mar 7th Air Force Invite 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)